The Liberals have a double-digit lead over the Conservatives in popular support, as the House of Commons scrambles to wrap up the legislative session before a possible election and the vaccine rollout picks up steam, according to the latest poll from Mainstreet Research.
If an election were held today, 38 per cent of decided and leaning voters would cast their ballots for the Liberals, 27 per cent would choose the Conservatives, 17 per cent would go with the NDP, six per cent would vote Green, five per cent would choose the Bloc Québécois, and seven per cent would vote for “another party.”
The poll of 1,291 Canadians was conducted over the phone from June 12 to 14 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 per cent with a confidence level of 95 per cent.
Last month, Mainstreet had the Liberals polling at 37 per cent to the Conservatives’ 31 per cent.
The four-point drop for the Tories, to 27 per cent in June, ties them for their lowest level of support since Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole took the reins last August, according to a record of all public polls maintained by 338Canada.
The last time Mainstreet had the Tories this low was in the twilight of Andrew Scheer’s leadership last June. Mainstreet has never found the O’Toole-led Conservatives withe less than 30 per cent support.
Liberal support has held fairly steady since September 2020, according to past Mainstreet polls.
Since the last poll, there’s been controversy over the Liberals’ Broadcasting Act overhaul because of fears it could threaten freedom of expression. Other bills, including one to implement the budget and another to set targets to reduce Canada’s greenhouse-gas emissions, have been slowly making their way through the legislative process.
Vaccine distribution and injection have also been rolling along, with 65 per cent of Canadians having received one dose, and just under 15 per cent fully vaccinated, with public health restrictions eased in many provinces.
Support for the Greens, Bloc, and NDP has also held steady.
The Greens, however, have been mired in controversy since one of their MPs, Jenica Atwin, crossed the floor to join the Liberals. She did so because of disagreement within the party over the Israel-Palestine conflict, and comments made on Facebook by Green Leader Annamie Paul’s former senior adviser criticizing Atwin for her own comments in support of the Palestinian people.
The Liberals are enjoying majority support in Atlantic Canada, with just over half of voters saying they’d back the party if an election were held today. The Conservatives have the support of just over a quarter of Atlantic Canadians, while the NDP are backed by just under 17 per cent of voters and the Greens by just under four per cent. Liberal support in the region is up five points, from 45 per cent, while Conservative support is down seven points, from 32 per cent. The NDP is up two points since May, although Jack Harris, the party’s lone Atlantic MP, recently announced his retirement.
Liberal support is down nearly five points in Quebec, from 47 per cent in May to 42 per cent in June. The Bloc lost less than a percentage point, from 22 per cent in May to just over 21 per cent in June. The Conservatives held steady at 15 per cent. The Greens have close to double-digit support in Quebec, with just under 10 per cent, up nearly three points from May. The NDP trails all parties in Quebec with just under eight per cent support, although that’s up two points since May.
The Liberals are also leading all other parties in Ontario, with just over 40 per cent support, compared to the Conservatives’ 30 per cent. Liberal support is virtually unchanged since May, but the Tories have dropped nearly two points. The NDP enjoyed a big jump in support in June, to 17.5 per cent, a five-point increase from May. The Greens also have more support, with an increase of nearly eight per cent in June, compared to less than five per cent in May.
Voters in B.C. also prefer the Liberals above all other parties. Nearly 33 per cent say they’d vote Liberal, and 27 per cent say they’d vote NDP. The Conservative have 26 per cent support, while the Greens have just over six per cent.
The Liberals made big gains in B.C. in the past month after trailing the Conservatives by two points — 31.5 to 29.5 per cent — in May. NDP support in the province has also ticked up three points, from 24 per cent in May. Green support has fallen, from nearly 10 per cent in May to just over six per cent in June.
O’Toole and the Tories are big in Alberta and the Prairies (Saskatchewan and Manitoba), with 40 per cent support in the former and 34 per cent in the latter. Over a quarter of Alberta voters and 28 per cent of Prairie voters prefer the Liberals.
Despite the Tory lead in Alberta and the Prairies, both the Liberals and NDP have made gains there.
In May, the Conservatives were backed by 49 per cent of Albertans and 56 per cent of Prairie voters. The Liberals, on the other hand, had only 22 per cent and 15 per cent support, respectively.
The NDP also made big gains in the Prairies and Alberta. In May, 14 per cent of Albertans and nearly 20 per cent of Prairie voters preferred Jagmeet Singh and his NDP. In June, those numbers skyrocketed. The NDP now enjoys 20 per cent support in Alberta and 23 per cent support in the Prairies.