The Daily Telegraph’s form analyst Shayne O’Cass and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the chances across nine races at a bumper Rosehill meeting on Saturday.
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Race 5, No. 1: PRIME STAR
Race 7, No. 13 FITUESE
Race 2 No. 4: HEADLINER
Race 5, No. 1: PRIME STAR
Race 9, No. 16: COUNT DE RUPEE
Race 8, No. 9: DREAM CIRCLE
RACE 1: TAB HIGHWAY (1500M)
Ron Dufficy: It’s a wide race but I am trusting the form from the Hawkesbury Highway and tipping Don’tforgetmonica. She didn’t have a lot of luck there and is meeting a couple of them better at the weights here and does no work from barrier 1. Dangers; Charlton Park, she threw it away at Hawkesbury racing erratically the last 100m so hopefully she has learned from that experience. Saintly Sunrise comes out of that race as well and didn’t have a lot of luck and does love the sting out of the ground. Perfect Pitch in racing well enough and probably has the better different form here coming out of higher quality races.
O’Cass:Scarleo is having his first run for Joseph/Jones camp. He won a 1500m Highway here back in September when Keith Dryden had him. He has the 59kg but he has carried that sort of weight and been competitive in Federals from time to time. Wet is not an issue although the barrier may be. Speaking of Dryden, he has Perfect Pitch here in great shape. She is as fit as any others in the race and she has also had a track/distance win on the board. Don’tforgetmonica has the big finish in the race along with Proven Class.
RACE 2: TURANGGA FARM WOODLANDS STAKES (1100M)
Dufficy: I really like this like this filly Headliner. She was very good at her debut behind Stay Inside and then they spelled her after her next run. She has trialled beautifully just under a nice hold and with all this speed up front, she is a good chance of getting over the top of them. Tidal Impact is a hidden value runner. She won by 10 lengths at Coonamble in the Wellington Boot lead-up and then she was set to start favourite in the Boot but was a late scratching. She’s trialled very well since and she looks pretty smart to me. Asheema is genuine and has solid form lines. She’s very fit and handles all conditions. Shihonka knuckled down really well late when beaten by a nice type at Warwick Farm at her debut and could well be an improver.
O’Cass:Sonnet Star was an eye-catcher on debut at the midweeks when she was runner-up to Najmaty who was flying at the time. She got a great ride in the Wellington Boot by Robbie Dolan. The trial in between the Boot and Saturday’s race was out of this world impressive. So too the one you mentioned Duff, Tidal Impact. I know Damien Lane would have loved to split these two up but it’s a Listed race worth a lot of money and valuable black-type. I thought the one to trouble them both might be Sky Castle, Trapeze Artist’s ‘niece’ who was fantastic at Muswellbrook.
RACE 3: JOHN MESSARA HANDICAP (2000M)
Dufficy:Lackeen has just bit a little bit slow to come to hand this import but he has gradually got better. He was much better last start; he has had a trial since and is ready for 2000m and he will be very competitive. Achiever is going well and nearly pinched it the other day when he went for home in the Packer Plate. He might get a similar circumstance here in an easier race. Amica is a well performed mare who was well fancied second up in a Benchmark 88 and back to a 78 here third-up, she could really put her best foot forward. Mr Gee is another one fitter for a couple of runs back and is ready for the 2000m now and will improve.
Shayne:Blaze A Trail looks a lot like his old man Criterion and I am hoping that translates into him doing what his dad did in the Rosehill Guineas and that is to run out a strong 2000m. Everything he has done so far suggests that he will relish the opportunity to get out in trip and maybe it might help him race a wee-bit closer but still not dampen his finishing burst. With you on Mr Gee Duff, he was fourth in a Grand Prix over 2200m. Welsh Legend beat a better field than this when she won two starts ago but is up in the weights now.
RACE 4: EMIRATES PARK DENISE’S JOY STAKES (1100M)
Dufficy: Really good race. You go down the page here but I have landed on Expat. She is an improving filly who did a good job in her first preparation winning three from four. She has got an inside draw and has performed well on the soft and the heavy in past. She looks ready to go. Newsreader would have been a good thing from an inside draw and on a dry track. Just question marks on her ability depending on how soft this track is because she has got a big failure on a heavy – but she’s flying. Mollycoddle really overpowered them at the midweeks first-up looking very good start so she will be one of the stronger ones here. Nags To Riches ran nice time at Gosford and looks an improver and does map well.
Shayne: First of all – good luck with your horse Newsreader Duff. I wish I had a share in Najmah myself. She is worth a fortune once she goes to stud, especially if she wins black-type like her dam and her half-sister Najmaty. Who could forget Najmah’s debut at Kembla on Melbourne Cup Day The only real negative I could find is the draw. Loving Newsreader’s trials – she has to run well. If it’s an on-pacer advantage day by now and still a bit soft underfoot, La Foret comes into the mix big time.
RACE 5: INGLIS 3YO GUINEAS (1400M)
Dufficy: Bet of the day Prime Star. He has had just a short break of 70-days, he’s won a trial, he is well placed at the weights, he has got the right form lines and I think he just sits in a beautiful spot. I thought he could beat Exoboom who is untapped. He showed significant improvement winning the Hawkesbury Guineas second-up and no reason he can’t improve again. Midland has obviously returned a better horse this preparation but just some query 1100m straight to 1400m.
O’Cass: Concur. Prime Star is my best bet too Duff; same exacta – Exoboom for second. You said it all, really, set weights, barrier 6, Tommy Berry, great trial, etc. To be honest I thought he would be odds-on here but perhaps I am not giving the due respect to Exoboom who, as you say, is untapped. One little aside re: Prime Star, he will be close to $2 million in the bank if he wins this – not bad for a $22,000 yearling.
RACE 6: VINERY LUCKIN STAR STAKES (1300M)
Dufficy: Hard to go against Lost And Running. He has captured everybody’s attention winning three from four this preparation and five from six overall and he could well be an Everest contender if he can take care of this lot which is expected. Eleven Eleven is fit now. he is well performed and has run in the right races and looks Lost And Running’s main threat. Bandersnatch can sprint well fresh and his one trial was very good and did win the Carrington at the end of last preparation. The German import Thorin at least showed a little bit of dash in his trial so he could surprise at a bit of odds running into a place.
Shayne: I was keen to back Athiri to beat Lost And Running here Duff just at the comparative prices more than anything but she’s gone to Brisbane. Another potential danger Order Again raced on Friday so the only real obstacle for the boom horse now seems to be Eleven Eleven who was only two lengths off Splintex last start. Bottom line is, Lost And Running should win, he probably will win, but this is the first time in his life he is not a moral in my opinion.
RACE 7: KIA ORA STUD ORTENSIA STAKES (1100M)
Dufficy: I like Fituese. She is unbeaten at this track and distance. Rachel King gets on very well with her and she looked sharp when hard held in a recent trial and should be hard to beat with even luck from a little bit of a sticky draw. Embracer landed good bets at Hawkesbury. He has got to deal with a little bit more pressure up front here but he has come back well. Adelong is three for three at the Rosehill 1100m and she’s had a couple of runs back now and ready to perform at her ultimate peak. Wayupinstheky does no work from barrier one and is set to run another consistent race.
Shayne: You made a pretty compelling case for Fituese there Duff, by gee, she has every number working in her favour except for one and that is the barrier. The Kris Lees-trained Zaniah is a last start Listed winner – coming from last to win the Ascot Handicap at Eagle Farm – and trialled extremely up at Newcastle 10-days ago. Fituese has to medal here on those stats. California Zimbol is a smart mare who won the Group 3 Maurice McCarten this track and distance first-up. Adelong has to be given a chance on her track stats.
RACE 8: TIE THE KNOT HANDICAP (1100M)
Dufficy: He is a hard horse to catch but I think Hulk might be the one here. Chris Waller learnt more about him last preparation, I think he is probably going to train him like a sprinter now and I think he is going to react. He sits off this really big speed up front here and I think he is going to be really charging late. I see good value with him. A really good longshot is Snowzone. I have really liked his two trials and he just might be worth a speck at odds here the way he looks to be going. Mr Mosaic is a running type of horse who is going to look the winner for a long way. Salina Dreaming disappointed last start when the market expected her to fight the finish out but I am tipping back to a softer track may be to her advantage.
Shayne: My roughie of the day Duff is Dream Circle who actually made his debut in a race won by Splintex. Granted one of them is in the Doomben 10,000 on Saturday and might be an Everest horse and the other is in a benchmark race at huge odds but he had that sneaky little trial the other day and has gone well fresh in the past. Totally agree with everything you said about Hulk. He goes super fresh and has been trialling the joint down.
RACE 9: LES BRIDGE HANDICAP (1400M)
Dufficy: I am saying everyone is going to find Count De Rupee here with that Marway form line. He looks an up-and-coming type of horse who only has to go straight to the 1400m here to probably win – that’s just the only query, 1250m to 1400m. Dangers; Lucicello at odds. She has been running around the right types of horses and she is in the mix for sure. I’ll throw in Vitesse who likes to ride the speed and was good behind Impasse first-up at Hawkesbury.
Shayne: This is an old fashioned Get Out Stakes but I can’t go past the likely favourite Count De Rupee unless inside barriers have turned out badly on the day. If we get a good drying day and the track gets into soft range, I could definitely come at Bentley Magic who was third in that Marway race; he’s $41 and the Count was $3.20. Lucicello is capable on her day.
SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS
Race 6, No. 3: STORY LEGEND
Trained by the newest Hall of Fame trainer in Les Bridge. Not sure this horse will make the Hall of Fame but he his trials look like he might be pretty good. Well worth the gamble in this field
Race 2, No. 9: SATIN RIBBONS
Every trial watcher in the business has been waiting for this one to step-out. Barrier 1 on a heavy track at Kembla is no gift however. Was scratched from stakes grade at Rosehill to run in this.
Race 3, No. 1: BRIARS KINGDOM
Has done enough in his six trials dating back a fair way to suggest that he is handy enough to be super competitive here.
Race 5: 3,6,7
Race 6: 3
Race 7: 1,2,8
Race 8: 6,9
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Christian Reith is every chance to overtake Tommy Berry and be in second spot on the Provincial Jockeys ladder after today. He has a great book of rides, headed by early favourites Satin Ribbons (race 2), Coal Crusher (race 3), Peekays Legacy (race 6).
Race 1, No. 1: HOOYAH
Could give the locals the start they are after here; the Terry Evans-trained is ideally placed and has trialled up well for this. Looks a genuine threat in a race to suit.
Race 3, No. 2: OAKFIELD PRINCE
Promising So You Think son who won on debut then resumed with a creditable run at Newcastle. Looks ready to win.
Race 5, No. 3: VOYAGES
Only won once in 25 starts but can sometimes give a bit of a sight at odds in his races.
Originally published as Shayne and Duff: Fituese to keep perfect fresh record intact